2009 and beyond
(SA Today this week is based on a speech delivered by Helen Zille at
the South African Business Club in London on 2 October 2008)
In the last fortnight, we saw the recall of President Thabo Mbeki by
his own party; his subsequent resignation; the resignation of the
Deputy President, Phumzile Mlambo- Ngcuka; the resignation of several
senior Ministers; and the swearing in of a new President, Kgalema
Motlanthe. Rumours of an ANC split now abound.
The events have been described by some commentators as the biggest
political crisis to hit South Africa since the end of apartheid in
1994. And the present turmoil will last for a while yet, just like the
turbulence in the international banking system.
But if we look below the bubbling surface, we will see the real hope,
indeed far more than a possibility, that over the next five years,
South Africa's constitutionalists will win the struggle for our
country's soul. We will survive our Constitution's adolescence, and
the crises this phase inevitably brings, to emerge a more mature,
stable and consolidated democracy to take our country to the next
level.
The events of the past few months have exposed and revealed what is
really going on, and what danger this entails for our country. This is
a much healthier situation than the state of denial we have been in
for so long.
More and more people understand what we mean when we talk about
constitutionalism, and the need for institutions to limit the power of
the ruling party. This new awareness, which has permeated the
consciousness of our society's opinion makers on all fronts, provides
fertile ground for the next crucial step in the evolution of our
democracy.
The Nicholson judgment has reverberated through our institutions of
state, alerting incumbents, from the police to the public broadcaster
and the Independent Electoral Commission that their role is to serve
the people – not the party – and that there is a distinction between
the two. This may seem trite in a longstanding constitutional
democracy like Britain. But we easily forget that these insights
evolved here over centuries. In South Africa these lessons must be
learnt in the space of a few short years, if our transition is to
succeed. And all indications are that we are learning them.
But the greatest cause for optimism is that the foundations have been
laid for the next crucial step in the evolution of our democracy. We
are moving away from the current configuration with one single
dominant party and a fragmented opposition. The dominant party is
beginning to fracture and the opposition is beginning to coalesce
around common core values.
This process started in 2006 when the Democratic Alliance emerged as
the largest party in Cape Town and managed to come to power in a six
party coalition, securing a majority of a single seat in the 210-seat
Council. Against all odds, this coalition has worked extremely well,
and facilitated a convergence around the DA's policies for an open,
opportunity-driven society. The events in Cape Town had national
significance. They were, in effect, the start of the realignment of
politics.
Our next major step is about nine months away, at the general election
of 2009. In this crucial benchmark election, we must seek to hold the
ANC below a 2/3 majority nationally, and we must win power in at least
one province, either on our own or in a coalition with other
opposition parties. There is a distinct likelihood that we will
succeed in the Western Cape.
This task will be made easier if the ANC splits before the next
election, but this development is not a foregone conclusion. Last week
an ANC breakaway seemed a certainty. This week the probability is
retreating, and is now just a possibility, as Kgalema Motlanthe moves
to rally his disaffected forces, and allay the ANC's internal
tensions; and as the enormous difficulties of launching a new party so
close to an election dawn on the major proponents of the initiative.
But whether there is a breakaway now or not, one thing is certain: the
ANC's divisions will deepen in the years ahead and its disintegration,
from a position of almost complete hegemony for the past 14 years, has
begun.
If we succeed in our 2009 electoral objectives, we will show that the
DA's policies to promote an open, opportunity-driven society for all
produce better results than the ANC's closed, patronage-driven
society. We will demonstrate that our talk about constitutionalism has
real practical implications for people who aren't interested in
political theory, but want homes, decent education and health care for
their families.
If we can demonstrate progress, step by step, (as we have been doing
in Cape Town), by the time the 2011 local government election is upon
us, the realignment will be well advanced. It could take different
forms, either as a growing coalition of various component parties, or
preferably, as a new political entity, free of the baggage of the
past, to take on the challenge of the future.
The possibilities of the 2011 election are even more exciting than
those of 2009 because we have the real prospect of winning power in
South Africa's major cities. Already the urban electorate is showing
encouraging signs of breaking the political logjam. Just last week an
Ipsos Markinor poll of urban voters with landline telephones showed
the ANC and the DA neck and neck in the major cities – 27% of
respondents said they would vote for the ANC, 26% said they would vote
for the DA and 27% were undecided.
This is significant, and as the realignment progresses, and the move
from the ANC continues, this trend will escalate. And the DA will be
the core of the alternative, either because we progressively extend
our voter support base, or because events trigger a more dramatic
series of events that shape the realignment. No-one can predict
exactly how this will happen, but the trend is crystal clear.
By the next general election in 2014 – just five and a half years from
now – a new political entity will be a pillar of the political
landscape, with real prospects of winning the national election. Some
key names of South African politics – currently scattered across many
parties or outside of politics altogether – will find the same
political home, and we will nominate a presidential candidate and
shadow cabinet that can carry us through the real test of any emerging
democracy – a peaceful change of power through the ballot box.
That is the vision. And it is not wishful thinking. The political
currents, growing stronger below the surface, are propitious. We have
to row extremely hard, sometimes with the current (and sometimes
across it) to extend our support base, continue the dialogue already
underway behind the scenes, win power wherever we can, and then govern
well to demonstrate the alternative in practice to change people's
lives.
As long as we keep faith in our project, the prospects for South
Africa are good and the future is bright. I have little doubt that if
we read it right, make the right moves and work hard enough, history
will show that the events of the past fortnight were a catalyst for
positive change in our country.
Best Wishes
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